Anya Kussé
As a leading player in the energy market, we unburden companies in their energy policy and develop future-proof energy strategies. Our team of experts negotiates, manages and optimizes our customers' energy contracts in a continuous and transparent manner. Supported by AI-driven software, we provide insight into the current and future cost of each MWh. We integrate sustainability into our overall approach and work pragmatically and solution-oriented to support you in the energy transition. Together, we create the most ideal energy landscape for your business.
How are the recent price increases affecting your energy costs?
Energy prices have risen significantly again in recent weeks. Day-ahead and short-term prices for 2026 and 2027 are under particular pressure, mainly due to tensions in the international LNG market.
It is striking that a significant portion of this rise currently appears to stem more from a geopolitical risk premium—particularly regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—than from a fundamental shortage in the energy market itself. In other words, the market is currently reacting strongly to uncertainty rather than to structural scarcity.
In this newsletter, we briefly outline the key market trends and provide general guidance on what you should and shouldn’t do in the short term, so that you can make informed decisions about your energy contracts.
Natural Gas Market Update
European gas prices have risen significantly in recent weeks, particularly for short-term contracts (2026 and 2027). This trend is primarily driven by geopolitical uncertainty in the global LNG market. Tensions surrounding Iran and the strategic Strait of Hormuz—a key transit route for LNG from Qatar and other sources—are driving a significant risk premium into gas prices.
Although Europe is only marginally dependent on Qatari LNG, potential disruptions do influence global LNG pricing and, consequently, the European TTF gas price. Furthermore, Europe is entering the injection period with relatively low gas stocks, making the market more sensitive to such risks. The recent increase can therefore be viewed primarily as a temporary supply shock in the LNG market, rather than a structural shortage.
In the longer term, the structural outlook remains relatively stable. Since 2022, Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas and replaced it with LNG imports, primarily from the United States and Qatar. At the same time, global LNG supply is expected to increase further in the coming years, partly due to new export capacity in the United States. A wider supply could eventually contribute to a more balanced international gas price.
Electricity Market Update
European electricity prices have also risen again in recent weeks, mainly due to developments in the gas market. After all, gas remains a key driver of electricity prices in Europe. Recent geopolitical tensions surrounding LNG transport have caused a risk premium in the energy markets. Because gas-fired power plants set the marginal price during many hours of the day, an increase in the gas price translates directly into higher electricity prices.
Various structural factors also play a role. With summer approaching, solar power generation will increase significantly, which could lead to lower electricity prices during sunny hours. At the same time, morning and evening peaks remain prone to higher prices when gas-fired power plants once again dictate the price.
For Belgium, there is a risk of rising prices this summer. The Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear power plants will undergo maintenance for approximately seven months as part of their lifespan extension program. As a result, Belgium will temporarily be more dependent on imports, renewable energy, and gas-fired power plants. However, this risk has been known for some time and has already been factored into our purchasing strategy.
In addition, the CO₂ market and French nuclear power generation remain key factors. The price of CO₂ appears to be stabilizing at present following recent fluctuations, while high availability at French nuclear power plants could bring additional cheap electricity to the European market and thus put downward pressure on prices.
Our advice
Natural gas prices have risen sharply in the short term for 2026 and 2027, which is also having a negative impact on electricity prices. This trend appears to be driven primarily by geopolitical uncertainty surrounding LNG transport and global energy flows, rather than by a structural change in the European gas balance. For this reason, we would advise against hedging (additional) volume at this time.
We continue to closely monitor changes in LNG flows, geopolitical developments, and European gas reserves on behalf of our clients so that we can act quickly when opportunities arise again.
The same applies to the electricity sector, where we primarily monitor gas price trends and keep an eye on developments regarding nuclear availability and renewable energy production. This way, we are ready to act as soon as attractive entry opportunities arise again.
Do you have questions about your specific energy situation and the impact of recent price fluctuations?
Please feel free to contact one of our energy experts for personalized advice.