Anya Kussé
As a leading player in the energy market, we unburden companies in their energy policy and develop future-proof energy strategies. Our team of experts negotiates, manages and optimizes our customers' energy contracts in a continuous and transparent manner. Supported by AI-driven software, we provide insight into the current and future cost of each MWh. We integrate sustainability into our overall approach and work pragmatically and solution-oriented to support you in the energy transition. Together, we create the most ideal energy landscape for your business.
- PRESS RELEASE -
energy accounting specialist Odot sees gas prices halved by 2028. Companies can significantly reduce future costs by capturing volumes today.
Anyone who thought we would see an immediate drop in energy prices thanks to the new government's plans is dead in the water. However, those who anticipate today can significantly reduce their costs in the long run: specialist in Energy Accounting Odot sees no less than a halving of gas prices by 2028.
"Currently, there is an opportunity to capture parts of the volumes at significantly lower prices. So companies that 'click' today will reap the benefits tomorrow," said Odot CEO Chris Elbers. This year, it remains to watch out for price fluctuations and costs to put surplus green energy back on the grid.
This year again beware of additional costs.
This summer we will most likely face negative prices for electricity again. Especially as capacity in solar continues to increase. Although there was a significant drop in the number of new solar panel installations in 2024 due to the removal of subsidies. But due in part to the PV obligation for companies consuming more than 1GWh and governments consuming more than 250 GWh of electricity, there will still be a lot of capacity added in 2025.
Consequently, feed-in costs are more likely to remain high. Some solar panel owners will also have to deal with imbalance charges in 2025, where they have to pay extra to inject their excess power into the grid. These can be billed in various ways, such as per kilowatt-hour injected or taken or per kilowatt-peak installed capacity. Contracts that cover these cost risks are becoming increasingly rare. If they are covered at all, suppliers compensate for their own risk with high margins and/or (hidden) fine print in the energy contract.
Chris Elbers: "Companies can cope with this by properly mapping their own energy needs and adjusting their solar panel park to that as much as possible, because installations with a lot of surplus power do not have the ideal efficiency today. On the contrary. As for energy contracts, again it is very important to have the parameters clear. For example, if you're in the optimal situation where you don't need to inject much power back into the grid, it's best to make sure that they charge per kilowatt hour, otherwise you run into a fixed cost that is far too high."
Grid charges will get a makeover in 2025. The overall impact on energy bills will depend on the tariff code applicable to businesses. This could lead to an increase of 30 to even 40%. Costs will be even more focused anyway per kilowatt consumed or how much electricity a business consumes at a time.
Chris Elbers:"We are indeed evolving towards a cost calculation based on peak power. Therefore, today it is more important than ever to have a clear view of consumption. Measuring is knowing and peak power management is crucial to controlling costs. And therein lies a solid challenge for many companies, because often the stings are in the details."
The ideal business acquisition strategy for the first half of 2025:
⚡Reduce pricerisk by locking in pieces of volume in price for 2025 and beyond. For example, the gas price for 2028 is currently half of today's gas price, so that's where large chunks of volume are already locked in for Odot customers, to assure them of those more favorable rates.
⚡Manage peak power properly (and take into account electric cars and electrifying energy use), can control transportation and distribution costs.
⚡Alignrenewable energy production to consumption profile as accurately as possible.
⚡Take into account the potential impact of investing in batteries on an energy contract. Batteries can obviously be profitable for specific companies, but they often come with the obligation to enter into a certain (and suboptimal) type of contract.
Trends energy contracts.
Dynamic energy contracts are on the rise. For electricity, the number of dynamic energy contracts increases by almost 15% from 2025. Until the end of 2024, the majority of energy contracts (66.16%) contained a settlement based on average prices per month, with the distribution tending more towards 50-50 from 2025.
Energy contracts starting in 2025 contain remarkably more click options than energy contracts through 2024. For natural gas, this increase is even higher than for electricity. For both electricity and natural gas, more than half of the energy contracts include the option to set prices on a quarterly and annual basis. A de-click option is again much more strongly represented for natural gas in energy contracts from 2025, while for electricity we see the opposite movement.
Longer term: halving gas prices, but not electricity yet.
Gas price halves from 2028. Chris Elbers:"In recent years we have seen the gas price pushed upwards by the depletion of gas reserves and under the impetus of geopolitical conflicts. Currently it looks like the price should land back at the 'normal' level around 2028. Of course, there is no guarantee of that. However, companies can securethose more advantageous prices by locking in part of their volumes today."
For electricity, there is no immediate price drop on the horizon. Although Arizona draws heavily on nuclear power in the federal coalition agreement, we will not see the effects of this right away. Even if the government decides now to keep nuclear power plants open longer, we won't see the effect of this for another 5 to 10 years since a lot of patching up work is needed to keep current plants operational, if at all. On top of that, the earliest a new, first model nuclear power plant would be ready would be 2033.
Other options will not bring immediate relief either. Plans for the offshore energy island (a large, industrial socket at sea) seem set to fall through due to derailing costs (from 2.5 billion estimated to 9 billion now).
Reconnecting offshore wind farms to the onshore high-voltage grid will also come at a price. Inevitably, this will still have an impact on electricity bills (distribution and grid costs), as tariffs rise as grid operator Elia invests more.